UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- To forecast the future of the nation's farming and food production industries, it helps to see the bigger picture of mega-trends impacting our country, according to John Floros, professor and head of Penn State's department of food science, in his presentation on "Consumer Trends in Agriculture" at the University Park campus.

"If we don't look at the whole system, we'll miss the boat," Floros told delegates of the Penn State Agricultural Council at the group's recent biannual meeting. "The food system starts at the farm -- and sometimes even before -- and goes all the way to the consumer and beyond. Traditionally, we've been looking at production agriculture -- the farm -- but we have not placed much emphasis on the rest of the food system: processing and manufacturing, distribution, consumer and environment needs as well as societal trends.

"We need to understand that research and development play a vital role throughout the food system, starting from the farm and continuing through processing, manufacturing and distribution all the way to consumer needs and population trends. Feedback is important throughout the food system, which, tied together with education and outreach components, completes the picture."

Several significant trends will impact agriculture and food processing in Pennsylvania and across the nation, Floros says.

"The threat of an obesity epidemic has tremendous implications for the food industry, as well as what we farm," he says. "If we don't change the way we do things, we'll face serious health problems as a nation, and much of the funds available at the state and federal level will be diverted to other areas. Also, because of research investments, other countries will be ahead of us in creating a food system that deals effectively with obesity."

Research and development investments in several areas, such as functional foods, probiotics, prebiotics, nutriceuticals and nutrigenomics are crucial, Floros says. "These technologies, which will enhance food safety, quality, taste and convenience, will help keep the American public healthy and American companies among the world's leaders."

Floros says that, since the 1940s, the average yearly increase of per-capita retail food sales has been less than three percent; when adjusted for inflation, the average expenditure per person for food in this country has gone down significantly. The percentage of the average American's total disposable income spent on food is just about 10 percent annually, while consumers in Spain and Italy, for instance, may spend 30-40 percent.

"Consumers in other countries -- underdeveloped nations -- can spend almost all of their disposable income on food," he says. "That tells me that as a food system, we've done an extremely good job of providing the nation and commonwealth with cheap food of high quality."

The aging of the nation's baby boomers combines with a populace of increasing ethnic diversity to create a "grayer," "browner" America. These trends will have a tremendous impact on our food and the food system, Floros says, as changing preferences create new demands. Such determinants of demand as taste, convenience and healthiness remain the same, but they're interpreted differently by an evolving population.

"Among Americans 60 years older or older, almost 60 percent are women and only 13 percent are minorities," he says. "Within the segment known as 'Generation Y,' 25 percent are minorities -- that's almost double. In 2001, two-thirds of the adult population was either obese or overweight; in 2003, an estimated 75 percent of the nation's medical costs were due to obesity and related issues.

"About 40 to 50 percent of the population says convenience is the most important factor in food purchases. But in 1980, the definition of 'convenient' in time of preparation was 20 minutes; by 1990, it was only two minutes. Today, convenience is squeezed down to a few seconds -- that's the time from getting the package out to eating."

The Penn State Agricultural Council is an independent association whose membership is comprised of more than 95 organizations that represent agricultural or related interests in Pennsylvania. They include trade associations for various agricultural, forestry and food processing industries; commodity groups and cooperatives; media; organizations that provide products and services to the agribusiness community; government-related organizations; and related general-interest groups. The council advises Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences and serves as an advocate for agricultural education to both legislative policy makers and agricultural leaders.

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EDITORS: Contact John Floros at 814-863-2950 or jdf10@psu.edu. For more information on the Penn State Agricultural Council, contact Mary Wirth at 814-863-9646 or mfw10@psu.edu.

Writer-Editor: Gary Abdullah Office 814-863-2708