UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- When Yogi Berra said "it ain't over'til it's over," obviously he wasn't talking about the most recent drought in Pennsylvania, but Bryan Swistock believes he could have been.

The water resources extension specialist in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences is reluctant to declare that the state's water worries are over after a four-year dry spell, but he is optimistic. An unusual weather pattern that has driven a series of rainstorms up the East Coast during October and early November is "just what the doctor ordered," he says.

Although three southeastern counties -- Cumberland, Delaware and Chester -- remain under a state-declared drought emergency and eight more still are listed under a drought warning, Swistock likes the rainfall trend he sees. Counties in the eastern part of the state have enjoyed rainfall 2 to 9 inches above normal levels this fall.

"Interestingly, almost all our counties now are back to normal levels of precipitation for the year," he says. "Some counties still are under drought emergency or warning because their groundwater levels had fallen so far after four years of exceptionally dry weather. But most of the groundwater deficits have been erased."

Paradoxically, the western half of Pennsylvania has been relatively dry during the last couple months while the eastern half has been soggy. "That is just a reflection of how we have been getting coastal storms that dump rain mostly on the eastern sections," Swistock explains. "You almost can draw a line at the front of the Appalachian mountains and west of that line precipitation levels have been slightly below normal for October and early November."

According to Swistock, an interesting precipitation phenomenon has developed this year and he likens it to -- for lack of a better example, although it sounds a bit silly for Pennsylvania -- monsoons. "Think about it. Most of our rainfall this year came during two periods -- in May-June and October-November. In between, it was so dry that crops withered and wells went dry," he says.

"It's a strange pattern for us here in Pennsylvania. Normally, precipitation levels are more consistent throughout the year, with the amounts not varying too much from month to month. But 2002 has been different."

Still, as Swistock is careful to point out, there is nothing to say that Pennsylvania won't slip back into a dry weather pattern this winter and see drought return next year. Perhaps Berra put it best when he said, "The future just ain't what it used to be."

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EDITORS: Bryan Swistock can be contacted at 814-863-0194 or brs@psu.edu.

Contact: Jeff Mulhollem jjm29@psu.edu 814-863-2719 814-863-9877 fax #287