UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- It's unlikely anyone in Pennsylvania needs to be told that this has been an exceptionally wet year. But a weather expert in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences says we now can make it official -- 2004 precipitation will smash records across the state, including some that were set just last year. "It's a foregone conclusion already in some places, and the scary thing is, we are just halfway through the hurricane season," says Bryan Swistock, water resources extension specialist, on the heels of the deluge caused by the remnants of Hurricane Ivan. "The peak of the hurricane season comes in September and it runs through November, so we could have another tropical depression -- or two -- bearing lots of rain, headed our way."

By now soggy to their very souls, Pennsylvanians from Erie to Philadelphia endured the fifth wettest summer since records first were kept 106 years ago, according to Swistock. And the by-now all-too-familiar fall weather pattern that guides tropical depressions left from hurricanes right over the Keystone State is straining residents' patience and pocketbooks alike. Hurricane Ivan alone caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage in the commonwealth from flooding and accounted for seven deaths. That historic storm came just a week or so after floods triggered by the remnants of Hurricane Frances receded. "We already know that this will be the wettest year ever in parts of western Pennsylvania," says Swistock. "In the Pittsburgh area, they have already had 48 inches (by Sept. 20), and the previous record for a whole year was just over 52 inches. We know we'll get more than 5 more inches of precipitation before the end of the year."

Last year the western end of the state was the only region that was not abnormally wet, with the eastern counties setting records for getting continually drenched. This year the southeastern counties, while receiving above-average amounts of precipitation, will probably not see records broken. In the central region, if current trends continue, some all-time records could be broken. Most counties are 10 to 18 inches above normal for this time of year, according to Swistock.

So, after nearly a decade of drought, what has caused these two consecutive record wet years, and why are the remnants of successive hurricanes homing in on a staggering Pennsylvania to deliver saturated uppercuts?

"I wish I knew," says Swistock. "It is really hard to say why or blame it on any phenomenon such as global climate change. We haven't had an unusually high number of cloudy or rainy days, just huge amounts of rain when we do get a weather event, so that would be consistent with that theory that global climate change will increase the severity of storms. But it is difficult to know -- there has been so much historical variation in weather.

"There are various predictions out there about whether this extremely wet weather will continue." Swistock adds. "A weak El Nino is developing in the Pacific Ocean -- a warm current that supposedly favors a mild, wet winter for Pennsylvania. The National Weather Service has forecast a near-normal winter with a wet, cold November and an average December. Perhaps we can expect an early winter." Although Penn State models predict that global climate change will result in Pennsylvania becoming slightly warmer and wetter, this summer was cool -- the 23rd coolest since records were first kept more than a century ago, according to Swistock. "The year did not start out in an unusual way," recalls Swistock. "Overall for the state, the spring was cold but not terribly wet in most regions. It is difficult to generalize for the whole state, but for the summer season of June, July and August, virtually the entire state received above-average amounts of rainfall, and in the western and central portions, it was really wet. Follow that with a very active hurricane season in the fall, and you have the recipe for a record-breaking year."

Contact Bryan Swistock at 814-863-0194 or by e-mail at http://aginfo.psu.edu.

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Writer/Editor: Jeff Mulhollem Office 814-863-2719 FAX 814-863-9877