Even as some food businesses find lucrative market niches, global changes in food production and distribution seriously challenge the viability of local producers. That worries residents in the heart of Pennsylvania's food system. Just 10 southeastern counties–Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton, and Philadelphia– produce 42 percent of the state's agricultural output. "Together, those counties have 10,358 farms, ranging from family-run dairies with 40 cows and 150 acres to thousand-acre operations spread over several townships," says agricultural economist Kate Smith. "There are small, diversified Amish and Mennonite farms, as well as greenhouse complexes and 10-acre operations producing specialty herbs and vegetables. These farms are critical to the Southeast's regional network of food processors, farm suppliers, and transportation firms that bring our foods to the entire East Coast."

To preserve that system's agricultural foundation, the Regional Infrastructure for Sustaining Agriculture project (RISA) was established in 1993 with support from the W.K. Kellogg Foundation. The initial collaborators were Penn State, the Rodale Institute, the Pennsylvania Association for Sustainable Agriculture, the Atlantic Dairy Cooperative, the Reading Terminal Farmers' Market Trust, and the League of Women Voters. "A key task was to gauge the challenges and opportunities that the food system faces in southeastern Pennsylvania," says Smith, who directed the project's assessment phase. RISA surveyed more than 2,000 people, examined farmer and consumer attitudes, and reviewed census data and current research. The project also conducted focus groups and forums with more than 200 stakeholders, including farmers, consumers, educators, marketers, planners, and local government officials.

Agricultural economist Kate Smith directed the assessment phase of the Regional Infrastructure for Sustaining Agriculture project (RISA), which explored the challenges and opportunities facing the food system in southwestern Pennsylvania.

"We found that people from every part of the food system want a strong regional agricultural presence to last into the next millennium," Smith says. "But trends are working against it. Just look at the rate at which the Southeast is losing farms." From 1969 to 1992, the region lost 28 percent of its farms, and total farm acreage dropped 21 percent. A shortage of beginning farmers is accelerating the decline. "More than 40 percent of the farmers we surveyed were unsure if their children would continue to farm, and 20 percent said their children definitely would not be farmers," Smith notes. "Of those respondents whose children were interested in farming, 49 percent of the dairy farmers and 63 percent of the vegetable farmers were not sure their children would be financially able to take over the business. Some farmers said they have actively discouraged their children from farming, because they feel it is hard work for little return."

Low profitability is the primary barrier to entering–and remaining in– agricultural production. Sixty-four percent of the dairy farmers and 73 percent of the vegetable farmers that RISA surveyed believed they could make more money by selling their land than by continuing to farm. "When farms go out of production, it affects the rest of the food system," Smith says. "Membership in the Penn-Hershey Farm Equipment Dealers As sociation plummeted from about 600 in 1982 to 275 in 1993, with the eastern part of the state suffering the biggest losses. As farm supply businesses fail, costs for local farmers rise and profits fall. More suppliers are likely to fold as the number of farms dwindles, creating a vicious cycle."

The loss of farms also affects the region's food processors. "Their futures are linked; there's no question about it," says James Dunn. "Almost all Pennsylvania meat and milk goes to the processing market, as do apples and grapes. One factory can process the output from hundreds of farms. It helps to have concentrated agricultural production near the factory because it's very expensive to haul products in from elsewhere. If enough local dairy farms go out of business, so does the local milk plant. If enough hog operations disappear, it will be nearly impos sible to sustain local meat-packing businesses. About 40 percent of the food processing jobs in this state are connected to Pennsylvania farm prod ucts. Decreases in farm production in the region would lead to fewer compa nies and fewer jobs."

Farmers also face increased regulatory pressure, such as nuisance laws and measures aimed at protecting natural resources. "With 36 percent of the region's land in farms, the farmers responsibility for environmental stew ardship is immense," Smith says. "The vast majority of farmers we surveyed–85 percent believe it is possible to use environmentally sound practices on large farms, and more than half think they can reduce chemical use and stay profitable. But adopting such practices may not be feasible for farmers already threatened by low profitability. Farmers who change practices to protect the environment often incur additional expenses or suffer reduced income, at least for the first few years.

Government policies profoundly influence not only producers but the entire food system. For instance, RISA focus group participants reported that new meat-packing regulations have been devastating to local butcher shops, reducing opportunities for people to buy locally produced meats. "While policymakers often recognize the importance of agriculture, they do not always understand the complexity of the entire network," Smith says. "Policymakers need to continually improve their understanding of how they can affect the food system.